No idea. and today is the last date.I guess we need to explain its benefits first and than an example with numbers.
Can we post a graph in GDB, an excel graph showing forecast.?--RegardsAhsanOn Wed, Jul 6, 2011 at 3:44 PM, bc110201078 Wardah Ali <bc110201078@vu.edu.pk> wrote:
xactly my question!the previous thing i posted was just sum useful info, i found.numbers or no numbers?On Wed, Jul 6, 2011 at 1:40 PM, bc110200438 Ahsan <bc110200438@vu.edu.pk> wrote:
Dont we have to take real time example with numerical data and numbers?OR
just write down the effects of forecasting on business?
--On Wed, Jul 6, 2011 at 3:08 PM, bc110201078 Wardah Ali <bc110201078@vu.edu.pk> wrote:
Time-series methods make forecasts based solely on historical patterns in the data. Time-series methods use time as independent variable to produce demand. In a time series, measurements are taken at successive points or over successive periods. The measurements may be taken every hour, day, week, month, or year, or at any other regular (or irregular) interval. A first step in using time-series approach is to gather historical data. The historical data is representative of the conditions expected in the future. Time-series models are adequate forecasting tools if demand has shown a consistent pattern in the past that is expected to recur in the future. For example, new homebuilders in US may see variation in sales from month to month. But analysis of past years of data may reveal that sales of new homes are increased gradually over period of time. In this case trend is increase in new home sales. Time series models are characterized of four components: trend component, cyclical component, seasonal component, and irregular component. Trend is important characteristics of time series models. Although times series may display trend, there might be data points lying above or below trend line. Any recurring sequence of points above and below the trend line that last for more than a year is considered to constitute the cyclical component of the time series—that is, these observations in the time series deviate from the trend due to fluctuations. The real Gross Domestics Product (GDP) provides good examples of a time series tat displays cyclical behavior. The component of the time series that captures the variability in the data due to seasonal fluctuations is called the seasonal component. The seasonal component is similar to the cyclical component in that they both refer to some regular fluctuations in a time series. Seasonal components capture the regular pattern of variability in the time series within one-year periods. Seasonal commodities are best examples for seasonal components. Random variations in times series is represented by the irregular component. The irregular component of the time series cannot be predicted in advance. The random variations in the time series are caused by short-term, unanticipated and nonrecurring factors that affect the time series.
On Wed, Jul 6, 2011 at 12:49 PM, bc110200438 Ahsan <bc110200438@vu.edu.pk> wrote:kia yeh correct solution hey.??Solution;
I wish to forecast the sales of a somewhat seasonal product by month. Sales have been increasing lately. I need to know what they are likely to be over the next 6 months. Time series analysis gives me insight into what the trend and seasonality are.
And
You may make a monthly or weekly sale forecast.If you use weekly or monthly data, it is time series in nature. But if you collect sale volume at a point in time of all companies in the market,the data is crossectional.
Please comment on this solution.
On Wed, Jul 6, 2011 at 2:42 PM, mc110201871 Sitwat Nisar <mc110201871@vu.edu.pk> wrote:
plz explain it.. i didn't understand it.. is it a write solution?On Wed, Jul 6, 2011 at 1:24 AM, afaaq <afaaqtariq233@gmail.com> wrote:
Asslam O Alikum
MTH302 GDB IDEA SOLUTION
1. Determine Variable Unit Costs. Determine the variable costs of producing one unit of this product. Variable costs are those costs associated with making the product or buying it wholesale. If you are making a product, you will need to know the cost of all the components that go into that product. For example, if you are printing books, your variable unit costs are paper, binding, and glue for one book, and the cost to put one book together. Let's say you calculate your unit variable cost at $11.50.
2. Determine Fixed Costs Fixed costs are costs to keep your business operating, even if you didn't produce any products. To determine fixed costs, add up the cost of running your factory for one month. These costs would include rent or mortgage, utilities, insurance, salaries retirement benefit cost of non-production employees, and all other costs. In other words, fixed costs are all costs of your business except those directly related to producing your products. Let's say you determine your monthly total fixed cost at $25,000.
3. Determine Unit Price Determine the unit price for your product. This price may change as you see where your break-even point is, keeping in mind the damage of equipment and other unexpected expenses, and also desired profit, for now let's say your unit price is $25.00 per book. Breakeven Point = Fixed Costs/(Unit Selling Price - Variable Costs) =25000/(25-11.5) =1851.851 The above mention calculation provides good profit range from which company can set aside desired amount that will collect interest or purchase annuities.
IDEA SOlution MTH 302
Remember Me In Your Prayers
Realization of the fact that "Time is Money" in business activities, the dynamic decision technologies presented here, have been a necessary tool for applying to a wide range of managerial decisions successfully where time and money are directly related. In making strategic decisions under uncertainty, we all make forecasts. We may not think that we are forecasting, but our choices will be directed by our anticipation of results of our actions or inactions.
Best regard's
Muhammad Afaaq
MBA 4th (Final Semester) Finance Group
0346-5329264
Islamabad
Afaaq_Tariq@yahoo.com
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